Oil prices have remained near a three-month low, marking the fourth straight session of losses, as markets anticipate an increase in global supply following a new U.S.–Iran agreement. This deal aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for energy shipments worldwide. West Texas Intermediate crude has been trading below $77 per barrel, while Brent is close to $79. Both benchmarks are under pressure due to expectations that Iranian oil exports could soon re-enter the global market under this preliminary framework. The ongoing decline represents the longest losing streak for crude oil this year.
The market sentiment has weakened as traders expect the agreement to lessen geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, experts warn that the recovery in shipping activity may be slow due to necessary security arrangements and logistical challenges in the region. The draft agreement includes a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran would be allowed to resume oil exports under reduced restrictions. In exchange, the United States would lift certain sanctions and remove obstacles to maritime traffic through this vital shipping corridor.
Despite the forecasted increase in supply, recent weeks have shown signs of tightening global inventories. Industry estimates have pointed to noticeable declines in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding complexity to price movements. This trend persists even as long-term forecasts increasingly account for higher Iranian oil output. The market remains keenly focused on whether the agreement will endure and how swiftly physical oil flows can return to normal levels.
Futures pricing currently reflects a mix of optimism over immediate supply prospects and uncertainty about the implementation of the agreement. Participants are closely monitoring these developments, as the potential return of Iranian oil could significantly impact global energy markets. The balancing act between supply optimism and the realities of logistical and security constraints will likely continue to influence oil prices in the coming weeks.